Reserch Item #1: Predictive Markets

Recently I've been looking into the state of prediction markets. A prediction market is any stock market-like game or system where you can bet (usually not in real money) on the outcome of an event or competition, like American Idol, movie releases and anything buzz-worthy. I have a feeling that we'll see a lot more of these in the near future, given their tremendous potential value in taking the pulse of society.

A couple of words of warning: The markets can become very addictive. Try to schedule time to pay attention to them, rather than doing it haphazardly. Don't expect yourself to be a pro overnight. It takes time to get the hang.

Having been a member of HSX's movie prediction market for 6+ years, I wanted to see how the competition had evolved. Or if there was any. It turns out that it really hasn't moved far at all, which surprises me. The main examples are weak, underpopulated and poorly designed right now, but evolving quickly.

The Markets:

HSX: My first trade was Deep Impact in 1998 and I've (slowly) built to 550 million HSX dollars. Reliably stable and thorough, HSX offers an easy to understand model of prediction markets and is based upon the actual box office reciepts. The competition is stiff and already way ahead of you here. Competent newbies (of which there many) can really take off in the rankings. As good as it is, they seem to be slowing the impovements considerably. Having said this, when they upgrade the site next week and it's great, I won't be surprised.

Inkling: Looks to be a popularity market, allowing bets on everything from American Idol winners to Apple Rumors to the price of oil. Smart looking site and easy betting tools are appreciated, but there needs to be more to bet on. Perhaps with time and more members there will be something really solid here. The staff is very responsive to requests and seems excited about the concept in the various blogs and news items detailing the process of starting the market. Trading is really easy and plainly evident. It actually asks you a question to help you get to a buying decision faster, which helps. The amount to trade leaves wide gaps for the future. I want so badly to create a market of two, and I believe this is on the horizon for them.

Yahoo Buzz: This market has the most content potential of the new crop, but I doubt it will ever be organized into something better. It is SCREAMING for an AJAX interface and an information designer to grab it by the neck and shake it. It is plainly designed, but the content is terrific and easy to bet on, much like HSX. The focus is (kinda) on tech and tech products.

CrowdIQ: I really tried to like this one. In the end, however, it was a bit intricate for my idea of fun. It is built as a series of smaller, user-created markets, all functioning on their own. In the looks department it gets a 9, however, and it has little moments of brilliance like giving confidence percentages as newsworthy items.
These markets can all be a lot of fun and really bring current events into a new place for you. It makes reading the news much, much more interesting because there is a sort of investment in it. No matter how evil that may sound, it keeps me reading.


I'll possibly add more as I encounter them and update this list every so often.